Every player who wants to master the Tongits game must find answers to these questions and centre their Tongits strategy around them:

• Is it fine to draw one more card?
• Is dropping now a safe choice?
• Which opponent might have lower points than I?
• How to be certain which player might call "Tongits" in the next few turns?

In order to understand Tongits probability concepts & maths behind the game, read this article till the end. We will not only cover the basics of probability in this game, but also the tips and tricks that you can simply remember and use to ace the game. Don't worry! This is not going to be a heavy Algebra class, just plain, simple logic-based concepts.

1. Why your Tongits strategy should be based on maths

Tongits is a game of skills. The players who rely only on luck in Tongits will often find themselves on the losing end against experienced players. It is a card management game that is governed by the science of probability and statistics. Knowing the basics of maths and probability in Tongits can help you in:

• Figuring out the opponents' potential Melds
• Calculating the probability of you getting the right card
• Analysing and deciding the best moment to call "Tongits", Challenge or Fold
• Avoiding Burn or Sunog and risky moves that might lead to it
• Creating a solid Tongits advanced strategy that will win you games consistently

Apart from this, understanding Tongits probability can also help you avoid the following mistakes:

• Starting a "Challenge" even when it is difficult for you to win
• Folding easily, even if you had a great chance to win the round
• Keeping high cards in your hand in the hope of a big Meld
• Misjudging the opponents' discards and draws

In short, you should learn probability in Tongits so that you can make quick, smart, and well-informed decisions using the data that is readily available.

2. The basic maths of card distribution every player should remember

Tongits uses a standard 52-card deck. The game has:

• 3 participants (1 Dealer + 2 players)
• Dealer gets 13 cards
• Other players get 12 cards each
• Remaining cards make the Closed Pile or Draw Pile

If you observe, the size of the draw pile in this game is quite small. It matters because:

• The probabilities change with every card drawn from the pile
• You can track the discarded cards easily
• You can predict the outs (more on this later) that are not easily available
• You can analyse the strength of your opponents' hand based on the cards they are discarding

Let's understand this in a little more detail.

2.1. What are the "Outs" in the Tongits game

While creating a Meld, you are always on the lookout for specific cards. Those specific cards that can complete your Meld(s) are known as "Outs."

Examples:

• You have 7♠ and 8♠ → 9♠ is an out
• You have Q♦ Q♣ → Q♥ or Q♠ are outs
• You have 6♦ 7♦ 8♦ → 5♦ or 9♦ are outs

Simple rule of thumb:

• More Outs you need = The higher the probability of drawing at least one card you need
• Fewer outs you need = The lower the probability of getting the exact card. In this case, you might consider dropping

2.2. The Tongits probability and mathematics

Let's assume there are 13 cards in the pile and none of the Outs you need are visible yet. The probability of drawing the outs would be as follows:

Number of Outs Required	Probability of Drawing
4	30% of drawing one Out
3	23%
2	15%
1	8%

You can use this information to decide:

• When is the right time to call "Tongits"
• If you should extend your Runs
• Whether starting a Challenge would be beneficial
• Whether you should switch to playing in a defensive manner

3. When to Draw or Drop? An essential Tongits strategy for beginners

This might be the most important aspect related to Tongits probability. We have explained it here in the simplest form possible.

You should "Draw" if:

You have 3 or more Outs: It means that it is very likely that you will complete a Meld soon.

For example, you have 4♥, 5♥, 6♥ in your hand. With a 3♥ or 7♥, you can extend this Meld either side.

Your opponents are not playing in an aggressive manner: If you notice that nobody is dumping high cards, it means that the game is still in its early phases.

Your total points are 25 or lower: When the game gets into the points comparison phase, low-count hands (25 points or lower) have a higher chance of surviving.

You're close to calling "Tongits": If you are only one Meld away from calling "Tongits", then it is a very safe position to "Draw".

You have long Runs: Creating longer sequences of Runs means that you will have lower total score. It is very likely that you will win in a Draw/Challenge situation.

You should "Drop" if:

You have 0 or only 1 Out: In this case, the probability is too low for you to chase a Meld.

Your opponents are creating Melds aggressively: This indicates that they are very close to either calling "Tongits" or they are preparing for points comparison.

You're holding many high cards (K, Q, J, 10): Dropping early prevents penalties.

Your total points are more than 40: If your points tally is more than 40, then you are in a very dangerous situation if it comes to points comparison.

4. Using Tongits Probability to read opponents' cards

The beauty of maths and probability is that it is universal. It means, the probability fundamentals you used on your cards, can be used to reveal your opponents' game play. Here is a quick guide on this:

If they are drawing frequently, they have many Outs

If they are drawing often, it means that they are confident of making multiple Melds. They might also be close to ending the round by calling "Tongits". In this scenario, try to reduce your points as quickly as possible or "Drop" early in the game to cut your losses.

If they draw rarely, it means they have only a few outs or a high-count hand

It signals that your opponent has a weak hand or multiple high cards that they are looking to offload. It also shows a lack of confidence in their hand. You can drag the game a little longer and keep building your Melds.

If they are discarding face cards, they are preparing for points comparison

It is as simple and direct as it reads. They are trying to lower their total by discarding big cards like K, Q, J or 10. If you see this happening and you are certain that you don't have lower points than them, do consider dropping.

If one opponent keeps picking up your discarded cards, they're near completion

In this case, stop discarding cards that are similar to the cards they are picking. It will block their Melds.

5. Push for the win if this happens

Play for the win if you see this happening:

You already have 3 or more valid Melds

It means that your points tally is at an optimal count. It is safe to make some risky moves.

You have 3 or more Outs available

Remember the thumb rule we discussed earlier. The more the number of outs, the higher the probability of completing at least one Meld.

Opponents are playing it safe

It means they are not ready for a Challenge/Fight.

6. Play it safe when this happens

Take it easy and play defensively if you see this happening:

You have no Outs

If your Outs are dead, there is no reason to continue drawing.

Your opponents are clearly reducing points

It means they are preparing for a points comparison soon.

The table has multiple long sequences laid down

It indicates that someone is about to call "Tongits" any time now.

You are sure that the Closed Pile is thinning down quickly

It means that the round is nearing a Challenge/Draw situation.

Final thoughts

Learning Tongits probability is the fastest way to master the game. You have to use simple logic, not complex mathematics, to use probability to your advantage. All you have to do is count your Outs right at the beginning of the game and keep monitoring them. You should also keep an eye on the Discard Pile. Keep seeing what discards your opponents are picking up. Apart from this, keep watching your opponents' behaviour; whether they are playing aggressively, or if they have suddenly become defensive. It tells you when to draw, when to drop, or when to push for the win.

Master all these simple moves and you will have a Tongits advanced strategy that is helping you win more consistently. That's about it.